On Sept. 11, the window of opportunity for a substantial redefinition of U.S.-Mexico relations came slamming shut and the relationship settled into a more familiar rhythm of entente-estrangement-entente.
Historic discussions on rationalization of the crossborder U.S.-Mexico labor market were placed on the back burner and reframed within the context of North American security.
The Bush administration has recently put immigration reform back on the table, but its proposals (which are much less ambitious than those in the works last summer) are now rolled into a larger package on border security and are aimed more at winning Latino votes for the GOP in this November's elections than at restructuring the problematic U.S.-Mexico labor market.
For its part, Mexico has scaled back its most innovative proposals linking migration and development issues and is now focusing on shared security as a means to maintain itself on the U.S. agenda.
Instead of some form of NAFTA development aid or greater institutional support for a development agenda within the NAFTA context, the United States and Mexico will announce the Partners for Prosperity program when Bush and Fox meet today and tomorrow.
This initiative is a $30 million effort to channel investment by U.S. companies into poor, migration regions of Mexico.
According to a March 20 article in the Washington Post, the Partners for Prosperity program will "include subsidies for Mexican entrepreneurs who want to buy franchises of U.S. brands, education about financial services so Mexican immigrants can send money home more cheaply, and partnerships to encourage a secondary mortgage market in Mexico." [ 1
]
While private investment does have a role to play in addressing poverty, underdevelopment, and migration pressures in Mexico, this sounds as if the Bush administration is planning to underwrite the expansion of U.S. interests south of the border and provide free advertising for U.S. wire service companies.
No matter how you look at it, the fact remains that just as government
can't aspire to be the only solution, neither can private investment or
exclusively market-dependent approaches. Calls to declare poor areas of
Mexico "rural enterprise zones" and make them tax-free to investors,
domestic or foreign, aim at promoting entrepreneurism in Mexico. However,
they could easily deepen the disruptions that are forcing rural Mexicans
to leave the land and seek work in the industrialized north—often
a stepping stone to undocumented employment north of the border. This
is especially true if well-planned and adequately funded training efforts
and microcredit programs aimed at doing more than promoting U.S. franchise
expansion aren't part of the program.
Another key question: How much attention will this issue receive once
the fanfare surrounding this week's Bush-Fox face-to-face fades away?
It is quite clear that the United States is more focused on securing
agreements from Mexico to tighten its own borders, install a national
identity database and passport tracking system, and deepen binational
security cooperation than on making a concerted effort to spark development
in poor, migration-producing areas of Mexico in productive, sustainable
ways.
The Bush budget for 2002 calls for an extra $2.1 billion in spending
on border security measures, and the main announcement the two presidents
are expected to make this week is a joint accord on new border protections
and measures for sharing security information.
While the Bush administration has lined up a series of additional announcements
and initiatives intended to keep U.S.-Mexico relations on track and give
Mr. Fox something to brag about, they seem long on style and short on
substance.
Some sort of statement on migration is likely to come out of the confab
in Monterrey. This could possibly involve more concrete plans for establishing
a larger guestworker program, but most probably will just be a reassertion
of principles and agreement to continue discussions. It seems most likely
that the two men will hold up measure 245(i), under consideration in the
U.S. Senate, as evidence that migration discussions are moving ahead.
Bush is pushing hard for Senate approval of the bill by the end of this
week. It would allow undocumented Mexican immigrants in the United States
who missed a deadline last year to pay a fine and remain in the United
States to try and adjust their legal status. The measure is a positive
development, but is only one small step forward.
Fox and Bush could also make a call for some specific action regarding
reforms to the Border Environment Cooperation Commission (BECC) and North
American Development Bank (NADB)—there are some indications this
will be a third party audit of the institutions as opposed to more sweeping
reforms.
Additionally, the two countries have been working recently to lay the
groundwork for a new agreement on border water disputes; it's not sure
if Fox and Bush will have anything concrete to say on the matter in Monterrey,
however.
Ultimately, the key outcome of this latest presidential meeting is going
to be an agreement on security measures. The flurry of Mexico-related
announcements from the White House this week, in what is emerging as Bush's
style, appears to be primarily an effort to float as many sound bytes
containing phrases like "U.S.-Mexico cooperation" as possible—when
the dust settles, there may be little to show for them.
While that be enough to bring more Latino voters into the GOP fold this
November? Perhaps.
More importantly, will that be enough to not just maintain the illusion
of deeper U.S.-Mexico relations under Bush and Fox, but make it more real?
Notes
[ 1] Mike Allen, "Bush Proposes New Aid to Mexico,"
Washington Post, March 20, 2002.
Kourous directs the IRC's Americas Program.
